Election 2015: Why David Cameron will remain as prime minister

Election 2015: Why David Cameron will remain as prime minister

By Adrian Sykes
April 8, 2015
Money Week


"...We now have only four weeks to go until the election. Last time, I noted that I expect David Cameron to still be prime minister come 9 May, and today I’m going to explain to you why. It’s a simple matter of electoral arithmetic.

Take the latest odds, which come following the seven-way leadership debate. The ‘spread’ on seats has hardened to 284-88 (Tory) and softened to 269-73 (Labour). The SNP are marginally better (41-43), Ukip are unchanged (5-7), but the LibDems have weakened notably (23-25).

Bookies report that the expected weight of money is yet to come: not much of a ‘surge’ has been seen so far.

To win a majority, a government or coalition needs to take 323 of the 650 seats (I’m excluding Sinn Fein, who are expected to win six seats, but don’t take them up or vote). Also, the incumbent prime minister has the first shot at forming government, which could be a very significant advantage.

So at the current offer prices (ie the higher of the two figures in the spread), you’d have the Tories and the LibDems on 313. If they then throw in their lot with Ukip and the DUP, who are expected to win 14 seats between them, you’d have a majority of 327.

On the other side, you’d have Labour plus the SNP on 316. If the DUP join their coalition, that would make it up to 323. But Miliband has ruled out a coalition with the SNP, as have the LibDems.

So in all, it still looks as though a Conservative-led coalition is the more likely outcome.

As it is, I also expect the Conservatives to win more seats than the bookies are pricing in at the moment – primarily due to the big shift in Scotland. Come the big day, here’s how I expect the results to pan out..."

Read the Full Article @:

http://moneyweek.com/election-2015-why-david-cameron-will-remain-prime-minister/

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